Just to Throw Something Out for Discussion

[jabird56]

If you use just a simple math model showing a 10% annual attrition rate for our MMs, it would look something like this:...

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2003 7839 7055 6350 5715 5143 4629
2004 0000 3213 2892 2603 2342 2108

TOTALS: 7839 10268 9241 8317 7485 6737

Scary...

[sailsmen]

Where did the 10% come from?

[SC Cheesehead]

Bluerauder developed an attrition model that I think was based on statistical probabilities, and it came up with some pretty high numbers as well, may want to do a search for it.

SCCH

[Bluerauder]

Bluerauder developed an attrition model that I think was based on statistical probabilities, and it came up with some pretty high numbers as well, may want to do a search for it.

SCCH
Surprisingly close for independent assessments. I used a variable attrition rate that reflected the thought that better care would be taken of the remaining MMs as they got older. The chart below is just an estimate .... history will tell the truth ;)

http://www.mercurymarauder.net/showcase/files/1/8/9/1/EstimatedMMsRemaining.jpg

[baltimoremm]

i think 3-5% is probably more realistic

[Bluerauder]

i think 3-5% is probably more realistic
OK --- develop your own chart. :rolleyes: BTW -- my chart averages about 5.4% attrition per year over about 18 years. :D

[hot-rauder]

welll i know Adam 12 has killed 2 so far lol

jk buddy

[Hacklemerc]

GAHHHHH MATH>>> Hurts brain.... the pain the pain... stop..please...

[wchain]

http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordp ress.com/2008/01/funny-pictures-evil-raccoon.jpg

[Merc220A]

Try and drive them safely gentlemen (and I guess the few women that own them).

[Bigdogjim]

Mine will be around for a while:)

Right now it's parked in the back yard:mad2:

[racorcey]

OK --- develop your own chart. :rolleyes: BTW -- my chart averages about 5.4% attrition per year over about 18 years. :D

Your average is probably near correct. Basically, those on this board and a few other unaffiliated enthusiasts will keep the attrition rate low on this car. The problem is that there aren't enough of these kinds of people that bought these cars. On the other hand, the non-enthusiast buyers represented the larger number of buyers and these cars will have higher attrition rates.

So, in sum, where is the real average? Right now, it may be closer to the average Bluerauder has come up with. As the cars go past their useful lives, the attrition rate will accelerate, and the averages will go way up quickly.

We've already seen this in the 94-96 Impala SS community. Last SS's were made 12 years ago, and the numbers are dropping rapidly. The hardenards among us will keep them alive - until the end of the oil era.:bigcry:

[ParkRanger]

As the cars go past their useful lives, the attrition rate will accelerate, and the averages will go way up quickly.



I agree. I also think as time increases the attrition rate will increase exponentially, not linear.

PR :burnout:

[Jimsbowies]

Per Edmunds.com, the average age of a motor vehicle in the US today is over 9 years and rising rapidly each year. Has to do with basic quality issues in the initial construction along with the increase in average loan terms and today, the cost of gasoline. I'd surmise and suggest that specialty vehicles with a "following" will see attition at a rate far lower than (for example) a Ford Taurus or Chevy Impala. While my '04 DTR is a daily driver, it still only has 51k miles on it. And two of my local buds here in the Charlotte area have '03's with only 10k or 11k miles on them. While gas costs may cause many of use to put the MM's in a museum, I think there will still be a fair number of them in the marketplace and in use over the upcoming years.

[Dragcity]

I suspect mine will last for 12 to 15 years. By then, it will likely be a pile of rust and over-oxidized aluminum. So Sad....

Unless maybe I get a new car to drive daily and store my Marauder beside my '65 T-Bird.???

"Honey, with the price of gas getting so high, maybe I should get a small car."

[Bluerauder]

I suspect mine will last for 12 to 15 years. By then, it will likely be a pile of rust and over-oxidized aluminum. So Sad....."

By that time, I expect that many of the MM fleet will have met a similar fate.

By 2016 (according to my attrition chart), we will be down to about 1,552 MMs total (about 14.0% of the total). There will still be about 1002 of the '03 MMs on the road (12.8% of '03s) and about 548 of the '04 MMs (17.1% of '04s).

By 2019, this will likely drop to about .... 341 total (about 3%). Just my guess.

[Egon Spengler]

The chart says there are only 8500 left right now... I think that is a little low... I could be wrong, but just seems low to me... my accident was a close call and almost made the totalled list!

[Marauderjack]

The chart says there are only 8500 left right now... I think that is a little low... I could be wrong, but just seems low to me... my accident was a close call and almost made the totalled list!

I'll bet a bunch have been uh......"CUSTOMIZED" beyond recognition and thus......ARE NO LONGER MARAUDERS!! :eek:

Don't just consider the wrecked ones!!!:shake:

[2,4shofast]

Sad but true, I have see a similar trend with the SHO's. I use to be able to see a few every day here and there, now Im lucky to see one every few weeks and the production numbers on those were around 100K. As the price continues to go down on these cars the more likely they will fall into the wrong hands and become scrap metal:(

[Bluerauder]

The chart says there are only 8500 left right now... I think that is a little low... I could be wrong ...
Actually, the chart says that as of 2009 there are 7588 total MMs left ( 5213 -- '03 MMs and 2375 -- '04 MMs). Of course, I could be wrong too. Just my estimate of the attrition rates. That means that we have lost about 30% in 6 years --- or about 5% per year on average. Doesn't seem high to me considering that few cars will ever live to their 18-20th birthday.

[Pat]

What impact would out of country ownership have on these statics?

We found out recently that there are 300 Marauders in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia alone.

We also know that an undetermined number of Marauders were stolen, sources indicate these were transshipped to Mexico, Central and South America.

When viewing media footage from Cuba one is struck by the number of older (l950, 60 and early 70) cars on their highways and biways. Seemingly in operable condition. It would follow that Marauders would have a much less attrition rate when owned by folks outside the US.

[LIGHTNIN1]

Thanks Bluerauder for the chart. Sounds reasonable. Can you imagine what the new cars will be like 10 or 15 years from now will be like? Think I'll store up a spare REAL car.:help:

[bob6364]

When viewing media footage from Cuba one is struck by the number of older (l950, 60 and early 70) cars on their highways and biways. Seemingly in operable condition. It would follow that Marauders would have a much less attrition rate when owned by folks outside the US.

YESSSSS.....Thats a perfect idea ....send all the Marauders to small island that leans politically towards communism just a small CIA event a Naval Blockade and throw in a 40 year trade embargo and WAHLA...MARAUDER LIVE FOREVER....BRILLIANT !!! :flamer:BTW do you watch youtube.com? Do you see what they do to cars in Saudia Arabia they have so much money they drestroy cars like these just for the fun of it....

[Bluerauder]

What impact would out of country ownership have on these statics?

I'd be really reluctant to try to fine tune a gross estimate to that level. This is all pure speculation anyway. Personally, I don't think that the small numbers found outside the USA & Canada will have too much effect on the averages.

The same could be said for attrition rates in the various states around the country. I would guess that attrition rates on the east coast (particularly the northeast corridor between Virginia & Massachusetts would be higher than out in the mid-West. Exposure (traffic density & volume), theft, and accident or damage reports from insurance companies would probably bear this out. :dunno:

[xopher]

Surprisingly close for independent assessments. I used a variable attrition rate that reflected the thought that better care would be taken of the remaining MMs as they got older. The chart below is just an estimate .... history will tell the truth ;)


2012-2013 is a bad year for Marauders :eek:

[captain]

I for one am impressed with the skill and math that goes into something like this.
Thanks for working it up.

[Marauder386]

Is there a possibility of this being sped up by all those that are in use with the FHP ?

Justa idle thought ...



:cool4:

[Bluerauder]

2012-2013 is a bad year for Marauders :eek:

Driven by assumptions that I made a couple years ago. That is the point where the MMs reach the 10 year mark -- so I must have reflected an increase in attrition just due to that critical juncture in age. Might be 8, might be 12 .... but the picture basically remains the same in about 2020.


I for one am impressed with the skill and math that goes into something like this.
Thanks for working it up.

Not all that complex at all -- mostly basic math and some S.W.A.G. assumptions. Excel does all the work. :D


Is there a possibility of this being sped up by all those that are in use with the FHP ?

With about 18-20 MMs with FHP their usage wouldn't even cause a small "blip" to the overall picture. ;)

[WhatsUpDOHC]

By that time, I expect that many of the MM fleet will have met a similar fate.

By 2016 (according to my attrition chart), we will be down to about 1,552 MMs total (about 14.0% of the total). There will still be about 1002 of the '03 MMs on the road (12.8% of '03s) and about 548 of the '04 MMs (17.1% of '04s).

By 2019, this will likely drop to about .... 341 total (about 3%). Just my guess.
Old thread alert.

Hey, Charlie, I was Googling for Marauder attrition rates and your analysis and see your 2009 prediction for 2016.

Here we are![emoji482] [emoji482]

[kirk]

We're less than 2,000 left if the assumptions are correct.

[xopher]

I know I have alot less Marauder sightings to report in 2016. I assumed it was more guys storing them, but it could be guys totaling them or letting them rust out.

[1stMerc]

Hopefully no one is letting them rust out. If you are, please pass it on to someone who will appreciate it.

[Bluerauder]

Old thread alert.



Hey, Charlie, I was Googling for Marauder attrition rates and your analysis and see your 2009 prediction for 2016.



Here we are![emoji482] [emoji482]



Here's an update as of 2014. Just an estimate based on an attrition model .....

Remaining MMs as of 2016: 3,836 (34.7%) or about 5% loss rate per year.

http://www.mercurymarauder.net/gallery/data/500/Marauder_Attrition_2014.jpg

[daddyusmaximus]

I have a car that's only one of 3800? Wow, I feel lucky. I truely do love this car. I feel it's a very good balance of comfort with speed & handling.

Just need to make it a bit quicker without wrecking it...

[Shornaday]

I wonder what the statistics would be for the remaining stock MMs or Low mileage MMs, say with less than 50K on the clock?
.............................. ......... :nos:......... :burn:

[WhatsUpDOHC]

Here's an update as of 2014. Just an estimate based on an attrition model .....

Remaining MMs as of 2016: 3,836 (34.7%) or about 5% loss rate per year.



~3,836 seems more probable than ~1552 at this point. Thanks for the analysis!!


I wonder what the statistics would be for the remaining stock MMs or Low mileage MMs, say with less than 50K on the clock?
.............................. ......... :nos:......... :burn:

23K on Trilogy #19[emoji106]

[Mr. Man]

I wonder what the statistics would be for the remaining stock MMs or Low mileage MMs, say with less than 50K on the clock?
.............................. ......... :nos:......... :burn:I have 1. About 25,500 give or take.

[Spectragod]

I wonder what the statistics would be for the remaining stock MMs or Low mileage MMs, say with less than 50K on the clock?
.............................. ......... :nos:......... :burn:

Mine has 24k on it.

[Gryphonzus]

I have two with about 48,000.

[1Marauder]

18,034 miles. And
30,899 miles


Looking for another with less... :)

[ChiTownMaraud3r]

Here's an update as of 2014. Just an estimate based on an attrition model .....

Remaining MMs as of 2016: 3,836 (34.7%) or about 5% loss rate per year.

http://www.mercurymarauder.net/gallery/data/500/Marauder_Attrition_2014.jpg

Your original vs latest charts do not match. Total MMs for 2017 originally were extrapolated to be under 2000.. now is 3200+? What changed?

[daddyusmaximus]

I wonder what the statistics would be for the remaining stock MMs or Low mileage MMs, say with less than 50K on the clock?
.............................. ......... :nos:......... :burn:


I have 1. About 25,500 give or take.


Mine has 24k on it.


I have two with about 48,000.


18,034 miles. And
30,899 miles


Looking for another with less... :)

Well, with these being somewhat of a collector car, who's owners probably take to the internet to find info/fellow owners, my bet would be that this website could account for a pretty high percentage of the low mileage owners.

Mine is a daily driver with 116K on it, so I'm not interested in it's cash or historical value. I only care about the fact that I love the car and want to keep it to enjoy as long as I can. That said, it's still kinda cool to know you have a vehicle that not many others have.

[Marauderjack]

I have 265K+ miles on mine and it now lives in the garage with my 2014 Mustang GT 5.0 so the miles will roll up more slowly and hopefully it shall remain alive and be preserved!!:burnout::beer:;)

[alec2538]

I've got 192k on mine and have no intention of getting rid of it. I've driven this thing HARD for the past year; actually I just realized I've put 18k miles on it already!

My entire investment so far:

$4,300 for the car
$25 A/C Accumulator
$45 Motorcraft O2 sensor
~$20 for an oil filter adaptor gasket and coolant x-over o-rings
$200 for a 43k mile used transmission in perfect shape
~$400 in parts when I wrecked it (header panel, used rear end with new seals, rear shocks, rear pads/rotors)

Less than $5k invested in one of the most comfortable, fun to drive cars I've ever owned. Even in it's current banged up shape I have people asking me about it, offering to buy it, etc.

Now if only there was a way to extrapolate not just approximately how many 2003's are left, but how many 300A's are left. Especially ones like mine, "loaded" with both the spoiler and the 6CD changer :D

[RubberCtyRauder]

spoilers were dealer installed, not done at factory

[jsignorelli]

I treat my Marauder the same way I have treated my 1969 Shelby GT500 and my 1970 Boss 302. I am the original owner. They are in MCA champion condition, even after more than 46+ years. I suspect that my 2004 MM Silver Birch, along with my Mustangs, will be left to my children when I am gone.
I have a Mustang that I use at the track (1989 LX). The three princesses are rarely used at the track. They get parades, Carlisle and National car shows.

[justbob]

Your original vs latest charts do not match. Total MMs for 2017 originally were extrapolated to be under 2000.. now is 3200+? What changed?


Reality.


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[ChiTownMaraud3r]

Reality.


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Where is the current value coming from?

[justbob]

Where is the current value coming from?


Insurance company's? Current registered ones? Don't exactly know how you would go about extracting numbers from them or if that would even be possible for them.


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[tbone]

Hopefully no one is letting them rust out. If you are, please pass it on to someone who will appreciate it.

I just thoroughly drilled out a small rust spot behind my rear wheel and did rust treatment and put bondo on it today. Paint tomorrow. It won't be back.

[ChiTownMaraud3r]

I just thoroughly drilled out a small rust spot behind my rear wheel and did rust treatment and put bondo on it today. Paint tomorrow. It won't be back.

Nice.

I scuffed, and sprayed my chassis and underbody surface corroded components with rust inhibitor the other day.. makes me feel somewhat better when driving out in the elements..