thoughts on low price of crude vs 2016 CAFE 36mpg requirement

[Geo]

It will be interesting to see which American companies are left after 2016 when the EPA's CAFE 36mpg fleet average takes hold

the American manufacturers have been scrambling to make vehicles that can meet these standards (like the new 2016 Volt and Hybrid and PlugIn Ford Fusions) and few may buy them now that the price of Brent Crude Oil is at $50 a barrel

if few buy these cars there will be no way to pay back the research and development costs

this is what happened in the 70s when the fuel prices were rising and few bought the gas guzzling cars America largely made (which has been a struggle ever since for them as the consumer still favors the gas guzzling icon models they make today over their efficient models) because ever since the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973, Ford, GM. Chrysler and AMC couldn't afford the money spent on designing new models

In particular, Chrysler had just introduced it's redesigned 1974 large-class C-body in the fall of 73 for the 1974 year and could not pay back he research and development (R&D) costs for those cars which led to new CEO Lee Iacocca to seek bankruptcy protection in 1979 (with federally guraranteed loans).

The same thing could happen now, but in reverse: many fuel efficient cars to meet the new CAFE rating and few buyers because of the low fuel price. How will the R&D get paid off?

They won't make the CAFE average now which means huge fines levied by the US Gov't which they ought to waive at the very least as they will be at a loss enough from cutting off all their desirable product portfolio and leaving them with more efficient volume mainstream models which wont sell.

They could sell more gas guzzlers to pay back their loans for R&D (if the gov't waives the CAFE fines) but all these years to get consumers to be confident in efficient models gone to waste. In the meantime if the price goes back up all the years of momentum will be gone.

bankruptcies, if not now, could easily happen if the price of crude goes back up

[stevengerard]

Hopefully we are smarter now, I have a fuel guzzler (the MM) but my wife's car is a Fusion Energi. Hopefully we now realize that its not necessarily the immediate cost of gasoline it is the long term dependence as well as what it does to the environment.

It still drives me nuts that living in Illinois its nearly impossible to find E85 near Chicago. After all, corn is our main crop. When I drove my daughter down to U of I I found it for $1.39. when I find it up here its almost the same price as regular.:mad2:

[Geo]

yes the environment is important

well it sounds like the market is on the fence still between thinking of the big3 as fuel guzzlers or efficient alternatives. If so no one should go bankrupt as they should be able to move enough product on either end of the spectrum whether it's extra low prices for fuel or very high prices for fuel.

the key point is that the gov't should forgive the CAFE requirements if the price of gas stays low. Otherwise all the effort to meet it in 2016 will somehow prove to be a failure as more SUVs and muscle cars will most certainly be sold (and more V6 options vs 4cyl on mainstream cars).

Otherwise a production cap would have to be implemented on the guzzlers.

It's just that they've been great feats to undertake to numb the consumer from being too excited for guzzling mainstream cars which is why there is no 6.2L option on the popular Suburban and Tahoe, no V6 in the Malibu line, no paddle shifters or floor shift on the full size trucks at GM or at Ram, no normally aspirated V8 on the XTS or CTS, no V6 in the Fusion line, only a 5.0L on the F150 line, no more E-series vans and no 1500 GM vans, no V8s in Expeditions or Navigators, an expensive and limited Chevrolet V8 sedan, and an Ecoboost V6 on the Ford GT to showcase Fords portfolio.

Only Chrysler seems to have kept it's ideal image portfolio in tact by smartly allowing 8spd V6s to be mainstream efficiency options on the RWD/AWD cars and trucks by not diminishing their maintream portfolio. Largely the Fiat 500 and 500L are pulling their weight to keep the fleet average low without altering the Dodge, Chrysler, Jeep portfolio too much from the late 2000s.

[Motorhead350]

yes the environment is important


No it's not. Drill baby drill.

Not my problem and even then new cars are ugly. If I had the finances I would buy classics and stuff crate engines in them.

Too bad modern cars will continue to develop into potato's due to cafe and the epa. What a bunch of fascist pigs.

[stevengerard]

Too bad modern cars will continue to develop into potato's due to cafe and the epa. What a bunch of fascist pigs.

Its called engineering evolution, In the 1930's you could have ordered a car with a V12, even a V16. One of the better "Muscle" cars in the last 40 years was the GNX - a 6 cylinder. Which by the way, 98% of the know-it-all's at the time said it would be a piece of crap because it wasn't a V8. I bet 90% of them wish they had one sitting in their garage even if it wasn't their "favorite" car.

That said I would love to have the option to buy what I want not what the government tells me too. But without some regulation we would have too many people buying the cheaper to make more profitable gas guzzlers and that will hurt everyone.

If anyone thinks gas is going to stay at these prices you are crazy, will they go lower - I hope so. Will they go back up? Of course they will and it could sky-rocket if the political climate gets any crazier.

Its killing me, I'm just young enough to have missed the original muscle car era. Now that I am old enough to live through what I think are the best cars ever made I have two kids in college and two more to go. The difference is this time I will hopefully be able to buy a used one sooner than later or hopefully technology will keep up and I can buy a new one if desired


Not my problem and even then new cars are ugly. If I had the finances I would buy classics and stuff crate engines in them.

Dom, I don't know if you say these things just to be a contrarian or you really believe it. For someone who always spews banter about excepting you for who you are I would think you'd be just a little less myopic. Your statement is so self serving and narrow-minded its pathetic.

Never say never, but I would most likely will never EVER buy a Prius, yet I understand and accept that is the car choice for many - and I respect that choice. There are many other great options out there - American at that. I don't buy E85 because its cheaper (less mpg), I fortunately can make the choice of buying it because it minimizes dependency on oil (and yes you can argue that point as well as its take a lot of energy to make it).

Here's to having a choice of a Hellcat and a Ford Fusion Energi Plug in. I hope that continues for a very long time.

[88LTDCV351]

now that the price of Brent Crude Oil is at $50 a barrel


You know that the price will eventually go back up again, right?

[Geo]

You know that the price will eventually go back up again, right?

oh probably yes

[sailsmen]

It has noting to do with the cost of crude. It has to do with their goal which is best explained by what they go by. Georgia Guidestones

Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
Guide reproduction wisely — improving fitness and diversity.
Unite humanity with a living new language.
Rule passion — faith — tradition — and all things with tempered reason.
Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.
Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.
Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
Balance personal rights with social duties.
Prize truth — beauty — love — seeking harmony with the infinite.
Be not a cancer on the earth — Leave room for nature — Leave room for nature.

[Motorhead350]

No. I totally dislike modern cars other than super cars. Those are the only ones getting better with age.

The government can take their regulations and shove them down the throats of the society that will blindly accept them. FWD and fuel efficiently is not in my agenda. I have had this mindset all of my life and nothing has changed once.

While, I will admit from an engineering POV it's great that cars are getting lighters, safer, smarter, better on fuel, seeking alternatives for fuel. Fantastic. They can keep all of that. I'd like another supercharger for my Marauder and when I can, I'll buy a 1970 Oldsmobile 442.

They can keep their baked potato cars and drive them to whole foods. I'll keep my loud V8 and lay rubber down the street all the way to The Big Texan. That's a restaurant.

[Merrill]

^^^^^^^
Amen brother
I am with you.

[stevengerard]

Preferring to choose and having that choice of what car you want is one thing. Starting a sentence out with "Not my problem" is another thing. That will lead to you NOT having a choice. That's my point.

[stevengerard]

By the way, many folks would consider your Marauder an overpriced underpowered modern half-baked potato - never did come from the factory like it should have. I have many vintage muscle cars yet my MM is faster than em all. Doesn't mean I like them any less than the MM. What kind of car you prefer or drive is your personal preference - and hopefully it will stay that way. Protecting the environment should be everyone's responsibility.

off my soap box.

[sailsmen]

To control Humans, you control their activity. To control Human activity you control the ENERGY they use.

The EPA only has 84,000+ REGULATIONS.

[Motorhead350]

By the way, many folks would consider your Marauder an overpriced underpowered modern half-baked potato - never did come from the factory like it should have. I have many vintage muscle cars yet my MM is faster than em all. Doesn't mean I like them any less than the MM. What kind of car you prefer or drive is your personal preference - and hopefully it will stay that way. Protecting the environment should be everyone's responsibility.

off my soap box.

I don't care what anyone thinks of anything I like.

If I like it, that's all that matters. A car is purchased for my pleasure, not of others approval.

[stevengerard]

I don't care what anyone thinks of anything I like.

If I like it, that's all that matters. A car is purchased for my pleasure, not of others approval.

Uh, that's exactly what I just said.:shake:

[88LTDCV351]

No. I totally dislike modern cars other than super cars. Those are the only ones getting better with age.

The only car that interests me these days is maybe the Charger Hellcat or Challenger Hellcat. Ford certainly doesn't make anything now that I'm interested in. The Mustang is fine and all and only gets better but I've always been a full size car person.

The only thing that peaked my interest was the Ford Interceptor concept or the Lincoln Continenetal concept from many years ago. But Ford obviously has no plans on producing them.

Other than that, I'll still love the classic and muscle cars that scream Americana.

[Mebot]

The only car that interests me these days is maybe the Charger Hellcat or Challenger Hellcat. Ford certainly doesn't make anything now that I'm interested in. The Mustang is fine and all and only gets better but I've always been a full size car person.

The only thing that peaked my interest was the Ford Interceptor concept or the Lincoln Continenetal concept from many years ago. But Ford obviously has no plans on producing them.

Other than that, I'll still love the classic and muscle cars that scream Americana.
Agreed 100%

If Ford makes this concept Interceptor, I'll be absolutely tickled

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y90/Mebot/Mobile%20Uploads/IMG_66739389914389_zpsrcvldazk .jpeg

[LSp8]

The only car that interests me these days is maybe the Charger Hellcat or Challenger Hellcat. Ford certainly doesn't make anything now that I'm interested in. The Mustang is fine and all and only gets better but I've always been a full size car person.

The only thing that peaked my interest was the Ford Interceptor concept or the Lincoln Continenetal concept from many years ago. But Ford obviously has no plans on producing them.

Other than that, I'll still love the classic and muscle cars that scream Americana.

^^^^^
AGREED, I have always been a full-size car guy and I love my MM. I don't know how many dealer invitation cards I get from Ford/Lincoln that wants me to test out and trade in my car the new EcoJellybeans. I just throw that s##+ in the trash as fast as I snatch it out my mail box. What a joke. Mustangs are nice but I prefer full-size. I went to the Washington autoshow and Lincoln might as well have not showed up:violin:. Only saw three people in that section so sad it was pathetic! Caddy had everyone drooling (Escalade, V series, etc):bows:

[Geo]

the Cadillac CT6 will be the next BIG American to consider. It comes in 2016.

so far its only been seen in Camo but looked good. Not as big as a Marauder but almost.

It will be bigger than the new Impala and Cadillac XTS to give an idea.

motors will be some V6s and V8s it seems. Presumably a 6.2L V8 will make the cut as the V8 option.

[Mr. Man]

I'd like to see a big rear wheel drive that seats 4 full sized adults, not the "seats five" if your Mary Lou Retton size BS.

Don't care what engine it has as long as it gets out of it's own way and is comfy to go on vacation with all our stuff.

I will not be buying what are now called "full sized" as they are intermediate sized cars, no matter what Hertz wants to call them.

[ChiTownMaraud3r]

I'd like to see a big rear wheel drive that seats 4 full sized adults, not the "seats five" if your Mary Lou Retton size BS.

Don't care what engine it has as long as it gets out of it's own way and is comfy to go on vacation with all our stuff.

I will not be buying what are now called "full sized" as they are intermediate sized cars, no matter what Hertz wants to call them.

There's plenty actually. They aren't made by the big 3 though.. Lexus LS, BMW 7, Mercedes S550, Audi A/S8, Porsche Panamera, Jaguar XJ, Aston Rapide... etc and they all have tons of power and comfort options if you have the $$$.

[Mr. Man]

There's plenty actually. They aren't made by the big 3 though.. Lexus LS, BMW 7, Mercedes S550, Audi A/S8, Porsche Panamera, Jaguar XJ, Aston Rapide... etc and they all have tons of power and comfort options if you have the $$$.All but the Merc or Lexus are highly unreliable for DD and like you said IF you have the coin....:)

I was just trying to point out Detroit needs to get it through their thick skulls not all Americans want a two door speck.

[clmrt]

Apparently they want $60k four-door pickup trucks.