marauder count

[epic]

Wonder how many of the marauders are left?Also, the yearly attrition rate.

[8UWITH6]

Thisssssssss cannot be answered. Thread closed ;)

[Merrill]

There is a spread sheet here with realistic attrition.
Last numbers I think were less than 5000

[Bluerauder]

Wonder how many of the marauders are left?Also, the yearly attrition rate.

See the estimate / "guestimate" below. As of 2015, I figure that there are probably about 3,836 MMs still left on the road. The post below shows estimated numbers from 2014.


Thisssssssss cannot be answered.

^^^^^ This is true; but we can make an educated guess.


Here's an update as of 2014. Just an estimate based on an attrition model .....

Remaining MMs: 4,513 (40.8%)

Black (JPB): 3,321 (2,756 - 2003 and 565 - 2004)
Silver Birch (SB): 617 (162 - 2003 and 455 -2004)
Dark Toreador Red (DTR): 448 (all 2004 models)
Dark Blue Pearl (DBP): 127 (all 2003 300B models)

http://www.mercurymarauder.net/gallery/data/500/Marauder_Attrition_2014.jpg

And a rundown of the assumptions in the chart .... your results may vary. Batteries not included ......


I have always prefaced that these numbers were only estimates. No one knows the actual numbers and I doubt that anyone can collate the information from all the State DMVs and Insurance Companies as well as offshore information to get a better picture. My assumptions are shown below. Your assumptions may vary for whatever reason you choose …. But it will still just be an estimate. One thing for sure is that there are less than 11,052 on the road today than there were in 2003-2004. There are less today than yesterday. At some point, there will only be a handful owned by the DieHards and the Collectors. That’s just the way it goes as cars get older.

MARAUDER ATTRITION ASSUMPTIONS

The basic assumption uses a 20-year life cycle. This is typical in many military and commercial applications. At an average annual useage of 12,500 miles per year, that equates to a car with 250,000 miles. Few MMs will ever see that amount of miles even though we currently have a handful already beyond that point.

Using that 20-year starting point, I picked an initial 5% attrition. My model varies the attrition rate as the car ages by changing the rate at different points. At some point, yearly attrition begins to decline until it reaches a steady state of 2% at Year 29.

*** Years 1 to 5: 5% of remaining MMs (use of 5% based on 20 year Life Cycle)
*** Years 6 to 10: 10% of remaining MMs (2nd & 3rd generation owners, availability of parts, most out of warranty)
*** Years 11 to 15: 15% of remaining MMs (4th generation owners, unique parts discontinued, harder to repair, easily totaled out by insurance companies)
*** Years 16 to 28: Decreases 1% each year from 15% until it reaches steady state at 2% (most remaining cars are in the hands of collectors, in storage and rarely used).
*** Years 29 to XX: 2% attrition each year.

The above assumptions result in a 2014 total of 4,513 MMs remaining (40.8%). Works out to 3,044 – 2003 MMs and 1,469 – 2004 MMs. (Black – 3,320, Silver Birch – 617, DTR – 448, and DBP – 127).


ALTERNATE ASSUMPTIONS

Assuming a constant 5% attrition, the number of MMs remaining increases to 6,383 (57.8%). Works out to 4,458 – 2003 MMs and 1,924 – 2004 MMs. (Black – 4,775, Silver Birch – 834, DTR – 587, and DBP – 187).

I don't see the constant 5% as realistic; but it does put a mark on the wall as probably close to the upper end of reality. I tend to favor the graduated attrition since it recognizes age, parts availability, and the changing demographics of the drivers. Either way, we will never know for certain.

[FastMerc]

WOW I wouldn't have guessed that low! I was thinking half.

[Spectragod]

Someday..........my beater will be worth something.....:banana:

[MGDriver]

I was always wondering that myself. Is it not possible to get registration numbers from the DMV in the States? In Germany you can make a request to the Federal Office of Motor Traffic to receive registration statisics on a certain vehicle, not only can they tell you how many there are but also where they are registered. However this service costs a lot of money and that's why I haven't done it yet although I'm very curious.

[fastblackmerc]

I was always wondering that myself. Is it not possible to get registration numbers from the DMV in the States? In Germany you can make a request to the Federal Office of Motor Traffic to receive registration statisics on a certain vehicle, not only can they tell you how many there are but also where they are registered. However this service costs a lot of money and that's why I haven't done it yet although I'm very curious.

IF each state allowed it you'd have to contact EVERY state DMV with the request.

[RF Overlord]

That's a nice thing about Germany and England...and prolly the rest of the developed world: you only have to deal with 1 DMV instead of 50 separate ones...each with their own arbitrary regulations, many of which are conflicting.

[jsignorelli]

The key to keeping a car a long time and having it go up in value is to not abuse the car.
In April of 1970, I purchased my '70 Boss 302 for just over $ 2800. The dealer was happy to get it off of his show floor. I never abused it, and kept the car in like new condition.

I did make changes to the suspension so I could use radial tires, I did modernized the brakes to modern standards, and I did make necessary engine improvements so that I could use unleaded gas.

Today, I have to insure the car for the appraised value: $ 78,000.
I don't expect that from the '04 Silver Birch, but I'm aiming for appreciation over replacement of a wrecked car.

[88CuttyClassic]

i bought to do what it was intended to do.. drive. while its a special car, i never viewed it as that special to park it in a garage and only drive it on weekends, unless of course you highly modify it. I do take care of mine as if it is a weekend crusier thou. its gets washed probably 3 times a week. when i got it last march it had a very lightly 60K, i say very light because the previous owner bought it with 12K and put 48 on it in just under 2 years. i can basically attribute that to all highway. i've pretty much done the same. i put aprx 50miles per day on it and have just cracked 82k. If i were to guess thou i would say there are still over half. Here are my reasons. you have a percentage of people who stuck them in garages and never drive them, a percentage that use them as their crusier, you have a percentage that may drive them daily but take good care of them, a percentage that drive them daily but still know its a limited car and then you have the people that just bought them and drove them and then got a new car with no thoughts about its collectibility. i think all those percentages up until the last that i mentioned probably made up a majority.

even when they were new i hardly ever saw them. I live in a bigger city too. It made me wonder where all these 11,000+ were hiding. I think they are still sitting in garages. people got into that GNX mindset and thought this was gonna be similar , just not to the same degree. same thing with the 94-96 SS. Its just not gonna happen thou. what makes old muscle cars and old baseball cards worth a lot of money is that no one had the mind to save them in mint condition. by the time the 80s and 90s came around people had the mind set to buy a car and stick in a garage for hopes that it would one day be worth a lot of money. hwat really happend though is because so many more than in previous decade tucked car away it made them not hold that value that they thought. Supply and demand. i kinda laugh when i see MMs in the mid 20s. basically they bought a car in the mid 30's, didnt get to enjoy it at all and if they are lucky will only lose $10,000. had ford SC'd this car like they intended i think its a whole different ball game. The limited production would be backed up by the performance. As it is the car is fun to drive and plenty quick, its just not in that GNX, zr1, cobra R, SLP camaro, etc, eschelon of performance.

I plan to drive mine daily for 5 years and then Repaint it, refresh it and add it to my collection of classics.

[Esilar]

In Germany you can make a request to the Federal Office of Motor Traffic to receive registration statisics on a certain vehicle, not only can they tell you how many there are but also where they are registered. However this service costs a lot of money and that's why I haven't done it yet although I'm very curious.
I already tried that for Germany cause i doubt the statement in the Wikipedia: 3 in Germany and 5 in Europe at all. Unfortunately i had no success cause the MM was never officially imported and got no key number/model code. Our vehicle registration certificate just shows "0000". And with that the nice lady in the DMV was not able to make a lookup. :depress:

[L.Mark]

i bought to do what it was intended to do.. drive. while its a special car, i never viewed it as that special to park it in a garage and only drive it on weekends, unless of course you highly modify it. I do take care of mine as if it is a weekend crusier thou. its gets washed probably 3 times a week. when i got it last march it had a very lightly 60K, i say very light because the previous owner bought it with 12K and put 48 on it in just under 2 years. i can basically attribute that to all highway. i've pretty much done the same. i put aprx 50miles per day on it and have just cracked 82k. If i were to guess thou i would say there are still over half. Here are my reasons. you have a percentage of people who stuck them in garages and never drive them, a percentage that use them as their crusier, you have a percentage that may drive them daily but take good care of them, a percentage that drive them daily but still know its a limited car and then you have the people that just bought them and drove them and then got a new car with no thoughts about its collectibility. i think all those percentages up until the last that i mentioned probably made up a majority.

even when they were new i hardly ever saw them. I live in a bigger city too. It made me wonder where all these 11,000+ were hiding. I think they are still sitting in garages. people got into that GNX mindset and thought this was gonna be similar , just not to the same degree. same thing with the 94-96 SS. Its just not gonna happen thou. what makes old muscle cars and old baseball cards worth a lot of money is that no one had the mind to save them in mint condition. by the time the 80s and 90s came around people had the mind set to buy a car and stick in a garage for hopes that it would one day be worth a lot of money. hwat really happend though is because so many more than in previous decade tucked car away it made them not hold that value that they thought. Supply and demand. i kinda laugh when i see MMs in the mid 20s. basically they bought a car in the mid 30's, didnt get to enjoy it at all and if they are lucky will only lose $10,000. had ford SC'd this car like they intended i think its a whole different ball game. The limited production would be backed up by the performance. As it is the car is fun to drive and plenty quick, its just not in that GNX, zr1, cobra R, SLP camaro, etc, eschelon of performance.

I plan to drive mine daily for 5 years and then Repaint it, refresh it and add it to my collection of classics.


I agree!!!

[Shaijack]

I know where 8 of them are. But no SB. YET

[MOTOWN]

I know where 8 of them are. But no SB. YET

We easily change that :IF the price is RIGHT?:bandit:

[MGDriver]

I already tried that for Germany cause i doubt the statement in the Wikipedia: 3 in Germany and 5 in Europe at all. Unfortunately i had no success cause the MM was never officially imported and got no key number/model code. Our vehicle registration certificate just shows "0000". And with that the nice lady in the DMV was not able to make a lookup. :depress:

Hey another German member! Yes I'm sure there are a lot more than 3 in Germany also considering those driven by US military staff over here but I wonder how many exactly. Have you already met another Marauder owner yet?

[Bluerauder]

Yes I'm sure there are a lot more than 3 in Germany also considering those driven by US military staff over here but I wonder how many exactly.

Not a whole heck of a lot of military over in Germany anymore. Statistically, there may be only 1 or 2 MMs now that the strength has been reduced so much. There is one near Ramstein AB that is a member here.

[Esilar]

Hey another German member! Yes I'm sure there are a lot more than 3 in Germany also considering those driven by US military staff over here but I wonder how many exactly. Have you already met another Marauder owner yet?

Yeah, i did. Just two weeks ago :cool:
He's a member here too, "Merchil".

[Ken]

See the estimate / "guestimate" below. As of 2015, I figure that there are probably about 3,836 MMs still left on the road. Heck, the members of mm.net collectively own almost that many!

[TP Derrick D]

i bought to do what it was intended to do.. drive. while its a special car, i never viewed it as that special to park it in a garage and only drive it on weekends, unless of course you highly modify it. I do take care of mine as if it is a weekend crusier thou. its gets washed probably 3 times a week. when i got it last march it had a very lightly 60K, i say very light because the previous owner bought it with 12K and put 48 on it in just under 2 years. i can basically attribute that to all highway. i've pretty much done the same. i put aprx 50miles per day on it and have just cracked 82k. If i were to guess thou i would say there are still over half. Here are my reasons. you have a percentage of people who stuck them in garages and never drive them, a percentage that use them as their crusier, you have a percentage that may drive them daily but take good care of them, a percentage that drive them daily but still know its a limited car and then you have the people that just bought them and drove them and then got a new car with no thoughts about its collectibility. i think all those percentages up until the last that i mentioned probably made up a majority.

even when they were new i hardly ever saw them. I live in a bigger city too. It made me wonder where all these 11,000+ were hiding. I think they are still sitting in garages. people got into that GNX mindset and thought this was gonna be similar , just not to the same degree. same thing with the 94-96 SS. Its just not gonna happen thou. what makes old muscle cars and old baseball cards worth a lot of money is that no one had the mind to save them in mint condition. by the time the 80s and 90s came around people had the mind set to buy a car and stick in a garage for hopes that it would one day be worth a lot of money. hwat really happend though is because so many more than in previous decade tucked car away it made them not hold that value that they thought. Supply and demand. i kinda laugh when i see MMs in the mid 20s. basically they bought a car in the mid 30's, didnt get to enjoy it at all and if they are lucky will only lose $10,000. had ford SC'd this car like they intended i think its a whole different ball game. The limited production would be backed up by the performance. As it is the car is fun to drive and plenty quick, its just not in that GNX, zr1, cobra R, SLP camaro, etc, eschelon of performance.

I plan to drive mine daily for 5 years and then Repaint it, refresh it and add it to my collection of classics.
I agree 100%, I drive mine but not everyday as I also have a 2000 Lightning. Marauders are only rare because they didn't sell so it just happened to become a rare car by accident not an intended limited numbered car like some vehicles where the number built is intended to be very low for value. I don't think a large number of '03-'04 Marauders will be sold on Barrett-Jackson or Mecum Auto auctions anytime soon and at my age it won't matter to me because it won't happen anytime soon. I got over $25K total invested in car plus the cost of having it Eatonized so of course I'd like to see a high dollar value associated with it but that's not why I had it done. The fun of having a supercharged car is such a smile making adventure that if I lost a few dollars I am rich with happiness as long as I have it. I did just add another car as a get about to spare the Lightning & Marauder of daily driver abuse of bad weather and grocery getter duties unless I want to drive one of them.

[Nightcrawler]

Actually, if they had been s/c factory, they probably would have made more. I am shocked that less than 4000 are remaining though.:(

[88CuttyClassic]

Actually, if they had been s/c factory, they probably would have made more. I am shocked that less than 4000 are remaining though.:(

You know thats a guess right?

[Nightcrawler]

Yeah hopefully that estimate is way low.